Alright, let's get this straight. Rachel Reeves is out there doing victory laps because the OECD *slightly* upgraded the UK's growth forecast? Give me a break. We're talking about going from "barely growing" to "slightly less barely growing." That's like celebrating a root canal because it's not quite as painful as having your teeth pulled out with pliers.
"Fiscal Consolidation" or Economic Strangulation?
The "Fiscal Consolidation" Headwind
The OECD itself admits that the government's "fiscal consolidation" – which, let's be real, is just a fancy way of saying "higher taxes and less spending" – is going to act as a “headwind” to the UK economy. A headwind! So, we're supposed to be thrilled that we're only facing a *moderate* hurricane instead of a full-blown Category 5?
And Reeves is touting this as some kind of win? She actually *said*: “Last week my budget cut waiting lists, cut borrowing and debt and cut the cost of living. Less than a week later, the OECD has upgraded our growth and cut its forecast for inflation next year.”
"Cut the cost of living"? With £26bn worth of tax rises? Is she serious? Or does she think we're all idiots?
What's the real story here? The OBR's own David Miles said Reeves wasn't "misleading" when she said the finances were "very challenging." Okay, fine. But "not misleading" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement, is it? It's like saying someone "isn't a serial killer." Low bar, people.
Reeves speech did not mislead on challenges facing UK ahead of Budget, says OBR official
And the timing of all this is suspect, isn't it? The OBR chief, Richard Hughes, conveniently resigns right before all this good news comes out? Over a "protocol breach"? Yeah, I'm sure that's *all* it was.
Global Slowdown: Tallest Dwarf Still a Dwarf
The Global Slowdown is Coming
The OECD also points out that the *global* economy is slowing down. They expect global economic growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2026. So even if the UK manages to outperform France, Germany, and Italy (which, let's be honest, isn't exactly winning the World Cup), we're still heading for a slowdown. It's like being the tallest dwarf.
They try to sugarcoat it, saying the global economy has been "resilient this year." Resilient? Or just temporarily propped up by artificial stimulus and AI hype?
And what about the bit where the OECD says "higher tariffs [will] gradually feed through to higher prices, reducing growth in household consumption and business investment"? So, more inflation and less investment. Sounds great.
OECD warns Reeves higher taxes and spending restraint will limit consumer expenditure
Oh, and unemployment is set to rise to 4.9% in 2026, the OECD predicts, and to 5% in 2027. Way to bury the lead.
Bulgaria's Budget Blowout: Now *That's* Fiscal Policy!
But Hey, Bulgaria Ditched Their Budget!
Oh, and speaking of economic chaos, did you see what's happening in Bulgaria? Tens of thousands of people are protesting against the government's budget plan. Masked protesters attacking political party offices! Now *that's* what I call fiscal policy debate. Offcourse, we here in the UK are far too civilzed for that sort of thing. We just grumble quietly while our taxes go up and our living standards go down.
And the teacher in Jersey? Complaining about increasing class sizes and behaviour issues. I bet they are.
Lipstick on a Pig
So, what's the takeaway here? Reeves can spin this all she wants, but the underlying reality is clear: the UK economy is facing some serious headwinds, and a slightly upgraded growth forecast isn't going to change that. It's like putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.
